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Global safety: innovative methods of the analysis of conflicts

Anatoly I. SMIRNOV

Глобальная безопасность: инновационные методы анализа конфликтов

In the conditions of prompt processes of globalization of effort of political scientists under the analysis and, especially, forecasting of conflicts on the basis of traditional methods are doomed (at all respect for their intelligence, experience and intuition), as a rule, only to short-term effect. The expert community of the whole world tries to find innovative decisions of optimum variants of crisis reaction. The present book is attempt to give short the conceptual device of the basic problems and trends of the global safety, traditional methods of the analysis of conflicts, and the basic attention to give to the innovative.

The book positions the newest theoretical and practical operating time on a joint of modern information-communication technologies (ICT): the situation (crisis) centers, information-analytical and geoinformation systems etc. and problems of global safety for optimum crisis reaction to them and forecasting.

Taking into account dynamically extending arsenal of situation (crisis) centers and ICT in the international conflictology the book can be useful for laymen, the interested so actual directions of world politics.


CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

Chapter 1. TO THE MATRIX OF GLOBAL SAFETY: THE CORES STAGES, TRENDS AND CONCEPTS

1.1. Collective safety

1.2. General safety

1.3. Cooperation safety

1.4. A matrix of global and national safety: calls and paradigms of 21 centurу

1.4.1. The concept of «collision of civilizations»

1.4.2. National and global safety: a position of the USA

1.4.2.1. The concept of competing strategy

1.4.3. Concepts of national safety of the European states

1.4.3.1. Great Britain

1.4.3.2. France

1.4.3.3. Germany

1.4.4. The concept of national safety of China

1.4.5. Concepts of national safety of the countries of the near abroad

1.4.5.1. Belarus

1.4.5.2. Ukraine

1.4.5.3. Georgia 

Chapter 2. THE REVIEW OF BASIC APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

2.1. Historical and scientific approaches

2.1.1. The geopolitical approach

2.1.2. The behavior approach

2.1.3. The interactive approach

2.1.3.1. The games theory

2.1.3.2. The auction theory

2.1.3.3. Modeling

2.1.4. The basic concepts of the system approach

2.1.5. The circuit of systems analysis of foreign policy process

2.1.6. Types and methods of settlement of conflicts

2.1.6.1. Types of negotiations

2.2. The international conflict, definition, development phases

2.2.1. The international conflict as process

2.2.2. The international conflict as a situation. The basic components of the conflict

2.3. Typology of conflicts

2.3.1. Conflicts according to United Nations classification

2.3.2. Two principal views of confrontations

2.3.3. Structure and new character of conflicts

2.3.4. A heritage of Klauzevits and modern wars

Chapter 3. INNOVATIVE METHODS OF THE ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL SAFETY

3.1. A situation analysis method (experience of academician E.M.Primakov)

3.1.1. System of situational centers (SC) of MGIMO

3.1.2. An example of situational modeling of aggression of Georgia (2008)

3.2. Situational center as toolkit of conflictology

3.2.1. System of situational centers of public authorities of Russia

3.2.2. The main units of situational centers

3.2.3. Operation modes of situation center

3.2.3.1. A mode of problem monitoring

3.2.3.2. A mode of crisis reaction

3.2.3.3. An emergency situation mode

3.3. National control center in crisis situations of the Ministry of Emergency Measures of Russia

3.3.1. A situational room of operative change

3.3.2. A situational room of federal enforcement authorities

3.4. System of crisis reaction of the USA

3.4.1. Structure of Operative center of US State department

3.4.2. The information-analytical systems used in CIA and FBI

3.5. Crisis centers of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany and Italy

3.5.1. Center of crisis reaction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany

3.5.2. Crisis center of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Italy

3.6. The international situational center of the analysis of consequences aggressive influences on environment

(The Russian academy of public service at the President of Russia - University of Parma)

3.6.1. Monitoring information-analytical system «Angara»

3.6.2. Results of approbation of «Angara»

3.6.2.1. Search with subjects specification («oil flood»)

3.6.2.2. Monitoring of a crisis situation «oil flood» with usage digital map

3.6.3. A decision making support system choice

3.6.3.1. Decision support expert system

3.6.3.2. Results of approbation

3.7. Geoinformation systems in conflictology

3.7.1. A synopsis of geoinformation systems. The comparative analysis of the functional, economic and special possibilities

3.7.1.1. Singularities of family of software ESRI «ArcGIS» for data preparation to performance of the analysis and provision of results

3.7.1.2. Specificity of setting attributive data in INTERGRAPH «GeoMedia Professional»

3.7.1.3. Key parameters GIS “The Card 2005” of “Panorama” and implementation of client server applications

3.7.1.4. Singularities of server access to the cartographical information in the Complex of the visual analysis «GEOANALYSIS»

3.7.1.5. Special sea Information system «CARIS LOTS Article 76»

3.8. Systems of spatial positioning

3.8.1. Global and regional satellite systems of navigation

3.8.1.1. The American system GPS-NAVSTAR

3.8.1.2. The general data about GLONASS

3.8.1.3. GALILEO

3.8.1.4. The Indian satellite regional system of navigation

3.8.1.5. The Chinese navigating satellite system Beidou/Compass

3.8.1.6. The Japanese Quasi-Zenith navigating system (QZSS)

3.8.1.7. Prospects of satellite navigating systems

3.8.2. Questions of the international exchange of the geospatial information

Chapter 4. METHODS OF FORECASTING OF DIRECTIONS of DEVELOPMENTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS

4.1. The phase factorial model of the international conflict

4.2. The general scheme of forecasting of development of the international conflict

4.2.1. A method of calculation of a level of influence of factors on a phase of the interstate conflict

4.2.2. A method of calculation of a level of expediency of usage of information sources

4.2.3. The valuation method of probability of a fulfillment of the factor

4.2.4. A method of calculation of a defining phase of the international conflict

4.2.5. A method of determination of the scenario of the further development of the international conflict

4.2.6. The description of a technique of computer forecasting of development of the international conflict

4.3. Program implementation of a technique of forecasting of a direction of development of the international conflict

4.4. Information-analytical program complexes of Institute of the economic strategy – decision support in sphere

of the international relations

Chapter 5. APPLIED ASPECTS OF THE ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL SAFETY 

5.1. Arctic region – “the kitchen” of a global political climate

5.1.1. Who claims for Arctic region?

5.1.2. The European Union and Arctic region

5.1.3. Scenarios of development of a situation in Arctic region

5.1.4. Russia – Norway: «Controlling Arctic region»

5.2. The international information security and global culture of cybersafety

5.2.1. Information revolution and national safety

5.2.2. The international information security as an international legal problem

5.2.3. Forecasts on advancement of the international information security

5.2.4. A problem of global culture of cybersafety

5.2.5. The Internet 2025 – the forecast of scenarios of development

5.3. A terrorism mutation as a type of asymmetric war 

5.3.1. The analysis of the symmetric wars

5.3.2. Research of asymmetric conflicts

5.3.3. War guiding by asymmetric methods

5.3.4. Threat of nuclear terrorism

5.3.5. «Digital jihad» and struggle against it

5.3.6. The United Nations against terrorism

5.3.6.1. Singularities of a position of Russia

5.3.7. Circuits of money-laundering and terrorism financing

5.3.7.1. Problems of Russia

5.4. The cyberweapon: whether wars are real?

5.4.1. Singularities of approaches and estimations of the USA

5.4.1.1. China

5.4.1.2 India

5.4.1.3 Iran

5.4.1.4 The North Korea

5.4.1.5. Pakistan

5.4.1.6. Russia

5.4.2. The NATO and cybersafety

5.4.2.1. Cybercom of the USA and Cyber Operations Group of Great Britain

5.4.3. The fighting virus Stuxnet: the cyberweapon against the Iranian nuclear program

5.4.4. The Insider - fame-thirsty person, or lessons of Wikileaks

INSTEAD OF THE CONCLUSION

Glossary

Appendices

 

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